International Society for Quantitative History

Workshops

Trust Unraveled: The Long Shadow of the Spanish Civil War

16:00 | Friday, May 3, 2019

Asia Global Institute, MB 328, 3/F Main Building, HKU

English

Felipe Valencia Caicedo

Felipe Valencia Caicedo

Assistant Professor of Economics, Vancouver School of Economics, The University of British Columbia

The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was one of the most devastating conflicts of the twentieth century, yet little is known about its long-term legacy. In this workshop, Felipe Valencia Caicedo of Vancouver School of Economics will present key findings that show the war has had a significant long-lasting effect on social capital, using geo-located data on historical mass graves and disaggregated modern-day survey data on trust. There appears to be a significant negative relationship between exhumed mass graves and this same trust variable, pointing towards the deleterious long-term effects of political violence against civilians. In turn, the results for general combat deaths are insignificant. To deal with the potential endogeneity of conflict, Felipe and his team use military plans of attack in conjunction with the historical (1931) highway network. They further decompose trust, finding negative effects of conflict on trust on institutions associated with the Civil War (i.e. the Civil Guard and the military), but no effects when looking at trust on democratic institutions. They also find long-lasting results on voting patterns, using a Regression Discontinuity around the Aragon Front. In terms of mechanisms, using a specialized survey on the Civil War and street-level data, they find lower levels of political engagement and differential patterns of collective memory.

Friday, May 3, 2019

Asia Global Institute, MB 328, 3/F Main Building, HKU

Felipe Valencia Caicedo

English

The Society decided to launch the Quantitative History Webinar Series in Spring 2020 through Zoom given the Covid-19 pandemic. We hereby thank the Asia Global Institute for hosting our Economic History Workshops from September 2018 to January 2020.

While we hope to resume in-person events as soon as the city can get beyond this pandemic, please stay tuned for further updates.

We thank the Asia Global Institute for organizing this workshop. 

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