15:00 | Thursday, June 17, 2021
Zhihao Xu, PhD Candidate from the University of California, Los Angeles presents his paper: “Price Convergence Through a Financial Network: Does Financial Integration Impact Price Integration in Real Sectors?”
How does financial integration impact price integration in real sectors? Using newly hand-collected data from a domestic exchange market during the Chinese Civil War (1945-1949), Zhihao Xu of UCLA Economics models the connection between these two integrations measured respectively by capital flow costs (or domestic exchange rates) and commodity relative prices across cities. He uses battle shocks to a financial hub in the exchange network to identify the impact of exchange rates on price convergence between a city pair connected to the hub. He finds that (1) city pairs with a direct domestic exchange link exhibited faster commodity price convergence than others; (2) battles around financial hubs tended to raise capital flow costs between a connected city pair, decelerating price convergence by 4% - 8%; (3) a weak form of purchasing power parity holds: a 1% depreciation in the domestic exchange rates was associated with a 0.2% - 0.3% reduction in inflation rate differentials; and (4) a higher inflation rate did not impede or strengthen the price convergence channel via domestic exchanges. These results imply that China’s financial development was more sophisticated than expected relative to its status as an agricultural economy in the early 20th century.
Chair: Professor Debin Ma (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University), Co-Director of the International Society for Quantitative History
This webinar is a joint event with the YSI Economic History Graduate Webinar supported by The Young Scholars Initiative, from the Institute for New Economic Thinking in New York, and the European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
Special thanks goes to all organizers of the YSI Economic History Graduate Webinar Series: Ester Treccan (University Carlos 3 Madrid), Jordi Caum Julio (University of Barcelona), Maylis Avaro (University of Oxford), and Xabier Garcia Fuente (University of Barcelona).
Thursday, June 17, 2021
The Quantitative History Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The Series, now in its third year, is co-organized by the International Society for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, and Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. 量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起，旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流，推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由國際量化歷史學會、香港大學經管學院和香港人文社會研究所全力支持和承辦。
Conveners: Professor Zhiwu Chen & Dr. Chicheng Ma (HKU Business School)
The International Society for Quantitative History (ISFQH) is an independent, not-for-profit organization dedicated to promoting, supporting, and enhancing the advancement of education, in particular research and knowledge dissemination in quantitative history, in Hong Kong and other parts of the world.