International Society for Quantitative History

QH Webinar Series

國家與戰爭:中國通向大一統的歷史 (公元前221年至1911) States And Wars: China’s Long March Towards Unity And Its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD

16:00 | Thursday, December 10, 2020

Zoom Webinar

講座以普通話進行 To be conducted in Mandarin

Debin Ma 馬德斌

Debin Ma 馬德斌

Professor of Economics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 一橋大學經濟研究所​經濟學教授​

SY, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

國家與戰爭:中國通向大一統的歷史(公元前221年至1911)

本次量化歷史網上講座將由著名經濟史學者馬德斌教授主講,他於不久前由倫敦政治經濟學院正式轉任一橋大學。馬教授和他的合著者陳碩在既有的地理座標基礎上,整合公元前221年至公元1911年之間政權和戰爭發生率的年度大數據序列,從而研究在單一政權下長期形成的國家模式和猶如神話般的「中國大一統」。他們先將數據分為「農耕」和「游牧」兩類政權,以及「農牧衝突」、「農耕戰爭」 和「內亂」三種戰爭類型,並應用自回歸分佈滯後模型 [Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model] 作出分析。研究發現「農牧衝突」和「內亂」對國家統一有正面影響,而「農耕戰爭」則鞏固了其分裂。促進中國最終統一的原因何在? 這項研究強調其推動力乃結合「早熟的大一統意識形態」、「歐亞大陸最東端的封閉邊界」及「持續農牧衝突」三大元素。在本次講座中,馬德斌教授的報告基於其論文《國家與戰爭:中國通向大一統的歷史(公元前221年至1911)》(原文題目: States And Wars: China’s Long March Towards Unity And Its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD) 。他會進一步討論在全球背景下,中國統一對經濟表現的長期影響。

States And Wars: China’s Long March Towards Unity And Its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD
Debin Ma from Hitotsubashi University (formerly with LSE) and his co-author examine the long-term pattern of state formation and the mythical historical Chinese unity under one single political regime based on the compilation of a large geocoded annual data series of political regimes and incidences of warfare between 221 BC and 1911 AD. By classifying data sets into two types of regimes - agrarian and nomadic – and three types of warfare – agrarian/nomadic, agrarian/agrarian and internal rebellions – and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, they find that nomadic-agrarian warfare and internal rebellion strengthens unification but agrarian/agrarian warfare entrenches fragmentation. Their research highlights the combination of China’s precocious ideology of a single unified ruler, environmental circumscription on the easternmost end of Eurasia and persistent agrarian-nomadic warfare as the driving force behind China’s eventual unity. In this Quantitative History Webinar, Debin will present his paper titled States And Wars: China’s Long March Towards Unity And Its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD, and further discuss the long-run implications of Chinese unity on economic performance in a global context.

馬德斌教授的量化歷史講座亦收錄於香港電台文教組製作的《大學堂》系列 - 2021年1月17日 (HKT 20:00-20:30 第一部分) 和 2021年1月24日 (HKT 20:00-20:30 第二部分) - 按此播放第一部分 | 按此播放第二部分
This Webinar is also featured on the RTHK University Knowledge Platform Podcast Series: January 17, 2021 (HKT 20:00 - 20:30 for Part One) and January 24 (HKT 20:00 - 20:30 for Part Two). Part One and Part Two of the RTHK podcast are available here: Listen Part One | Listen Part Two

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Zoom Webinar

Debin Ma 馬德斌

講座以普通話進行 To be conducted in Mandarin

The Quantitative History Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The Series, now in its third year, is co-organized by the International Society for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, and Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. 量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起,旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流,推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由國際量化歷史學會、香港大學經管學院和香港人文社會研究所全力支持和承辦。

Conveners: Professor Zhiwu Chen & Dr. Chicheng Ma (HKU Business School)

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