International Society for Quantitative History

QH Webinar Series

暴力風險與合約選擇:來自近代東北鄉村匪患的證據 Violence Risk and Contract Choice: Evidence from Rural Banditry in northeastern China during the 1930s

16:00 | Thursday, March 4, 2021

ZOOM網路研討會 Zoom Webinar

講座以普通話進行 Conducted in Mandarin

Nan Li 李楠

Nan Li 李楠

Professor, Department of Economics, Fudan University 復旦大學經濟學院經濟學系教授

The Autumn, The actual view in Manchuria, Unknown author, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

暴力風險與合約選擇:來自近代東北鄉村匪患的證據
風險如何影響農業合約的選擇一直是合約理論關注的重要議題,然而當代研究多注重自然風險的影響,而鮮有探討暴力風險的影響。復旦大學經濟學教授李楠及其合著者利用上世紀30年代「滿洲地區農村實態調査」中所收集的農戶微觀數據,考察東北土匪活動對當地鄉村社會租佃合約的影響。除自然災害風險以外,研究發現由土匪搶劫等活動產生的額外暴力風險使農戶更傾向選擇激勵性較低的「分成合約」來分散風險。隨著暴力風險升高,農業生產率會因佃農選擇「分成合約」的比例上升而有所降低。上述結論在控制租佃雙方風險偏好及地區特質等變量後依然成立。於本次量化歷史網上講座中,李楠教授將講解其研究的實証發現如何豐富和擴展農業合約中的風險分擔理論,並為理解暴力對經濟績效影響提供新的微觀機制。

Violence Risk and Contract Choice: Evidence from Rural Banditry in northeastern China during the 1930s
How risk affects contract choice has always been a major concern of agricultural contract theory. The majority of contemporary studies instead focuses more on the effects of natural disaster risk, as opposed to that of violence risk. Professor Nan Li of Fudan University and his co-author use the Manchurian Rural Survey household datasets collected in the 1930s to examine how the bandits in northeastern China affected farmers’ decisions on the choice of agricultural tenancy contracts. Their findings show that apart from the risk of natural disasters, the additional violence risk from banditry and other criminal activities should also be considered as an important determinant of farmers' contractual choices. Farmers at high-risk conditions opted for sharecropping, i.e., a low-powered incentive tenancy agreement, to achieve risk diversification. The proportion of sharecropping went up with the violence risk, making a corresponding reduction in agricultural productivity. This result remains robust after having controlled for the influence of a series of variables, such as tenant and landlord preferences under risk, regional characteristics, and so on. In this Quantitative History Webinar, Professor Nan Li explains how the study of violence risk provides empirical evidence that enriches and extends the theory of risk sharing in tenancy contracts, presenting a new micro-mechanism for understanding the impacts of violence on economic performance.

Thursday, March 4, 2021

ZOOM網路研討會 Zoom Webinar

Nan Li 李楠

講座以普通話進行 Conducted in Mandarin

The Quantitative History Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The Series, now in its third year, is co-organized by the International Society for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, and Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. 量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起,旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流,推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由國際量化歷史學會、香港大學經管學院和香港人文社會研究所全力支持和承辦。

Conveners: Professor Zhiwu Chen & Dr. Chicheng Ma (HKU Business School)

What's On

International Society for Quantitative History

The International Society for Quantitative History (ISFQH) is an independent, not-for-profit organization dedicated to promoting, supporting, and enhancing the advancement of education, in particular research and knowledge dissemination in quantitative history, in Hong Kong and other parts of the world.

© 2022 International Society for Quantitative History | Registered Charity Number: 91/15784
All rights reserved.