唐代中國是否出現過牡丹泡沫？ “Peony Bubble” in the Tang Dynasty

唐代中國是否出現過牡丹泡沫？
投機與金融風潮對金融市場的發展影響深遠。十七世紀發生於歐洲的「荷蘭鬱金香狂熱」是世界史上的重要泡沫事件，一直倍受金融史研究者的關注。上海交通大學歷史系袁為鵬和他的合著者把泡沫史研究轉向中國中古歷史，聚焦「唐人尚牡丹」熱潮。他們的最新研究蒐集唐詩宋詞和筆記等歷史資料，從唐宋時期牡丹的栽培、消費、交易與投機等紛繁復雜的現象中，還原了牡丹花在唐宋期間日漸流行的歷史過程及其價格變化軌跡。

在本次量化歷史網上講座中，袁為鵬教授講解「唐人牡丹熱」的社會及經濟歷史，以幫助進一步認識人類投機泡沫史和金融危機史。唐代的牡丹價格昂貴，並在市場高度投機的氛圍下大起大落，「花子」（根苗）的預售和轉售交易普遍，為投機提供便利。「唐人牡丹熱」不僅基本符合金融學關於泡沫的定義，而且還與「荷蘭鬱金香狂熱」存在頗多相似之處，但比後者早八個世紀。

袁為鵬的合著者: 香港大學陳志武、清華大學王苗

討論嘉賓：香港浸會大學經濟系陳婷、嶺南大學歷史系劉光臨

2022年10月6日(星期四)
16:00 香港/北京/新加坡
09:00 倫敦 | 17:00 東京 | 19:00 悉尼

“Peony Bubble” in the Tang Dynasty (Webinar in Mandarin)
Speculative bubbles and crises have accompanied financial markets since their beginning or even earlier. The much-studied Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century is commonly known as the earliest speculative bubble in human history. Professor Weipeng Yuan of Shanghai Jiaotong University and his co-authors take us further back by showing that during the Tang Dynasty (618-907 AD), the Chinese elites and commoners alike feverishly speculated on peonies, pushing peony prices to the sky. Their research is based on historical documents from the Tang and Song dynasties, such as poems, lyrics, and manuscripts, which allow them to trace the history of peony cultivation, consumption, trading, and speculation.

In this Quantitative History Webinar, Professor Yuan presents a socioeconomic picture of Tang China’s peony bubble, enriching our understanding of speculative bubbles and financial crises in human history. Boosted by high speculative energy and facilitated by the trading in forward peony contracts, peony prices reached unimaginable levels and fluctuated wildly during the Tang Dynasty. The peony mania in Tang China shared many similarities with the Dutch tulip bubble, except that it happened about eight centuries earlier.

Weipeng’s co-authors: Zhiwu Chen (HKU) & Miao Wang (Tsinghua)

Discussants: Ting Chen (Baptist) & William Guanglin Liu (Lingnan)